Some outstanding presentations were made by ASX listed companies and almost all stocks would appear to be good value and very attractive in any market other than what we have at present.
The key points from my presentation are included below.
- Asian and African population growth to add 700m by 2030
- Consumption of major resources commodities still growing
- Supply side factors still likely to be major issues in the decade ahead
- Crude steel production still expanding – China, India, Vietnam and MENA
- Total energy demand still accelerating
- Prices for the four major commodities still trending higher
- BHP and RIO have pulled back to important uptrendlines
- Call me to participate +61 9222 9111
Copper consumption growing with electricifation of the world – more generators, more appliances and more EVs.
Supply of these raw materials will require higher prices as costs rise and availability shrinks
So many resources face these same factors as copper does.
Deficits are projected for many raw materials.
Crude steel is still the backbone of growth. China is still exceeding 1000mtpa and India hit a new high of 114mtpa. MENA is doing >50mtpa and Vietnam has jumped from <6mtpa in 2015 to current 21mtpa. China is sponsoring over 40mtpa of new capacity in ASEAN.
India wants to go to 300mtpa by 2030 but has just become an importer of iron ore. India + ASEAN could mean as much as 300mtpa newly sourced iron ore.
This is not a Brazil supply issue.
China still cranking out steel.
MENA uses low cost gas to run Direct Reduction Iron (DRI) plants that use magnetite and produce steel via Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs) powered by low cost gas fired electricity.
Energy consumption just continues to rise.
The overall impact is on prices in US$.
Gold, copper and iron ore made new highs in 2011. Oil didn’t.
In my view iron ore and gold are leading copper and oil higher in this new long term price upleg.
Gold has started its move and may be ready to move higher again.
The two leading miners are showing the way.
Call me to participate
+61 2 9222 9111
MOB: +61 416 189 090 | Skype: barry.dawes
Phone: +61 2 9222 9111|
Suite 7, 123 Clarence Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Australia
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